Development and validation of an energy shortage assessment model in the Iranian gas industry

Abstract

Gas shortage is one of the important challenges of the energy system, which is caused by the increase in the gap between available supply and consumption demand, especially during peak periods, and can create wide-ranging consequences for the economic, industrial, social, environmental and energy security sectors. The present research was carried out with the aim of identifying and explaining the factors affecting the severity of nitrous oxide, examining its consequences and presenting a comprehensive and integrated model. This research was applied in terms of purpose, and in terms of method, it was a mixed exploratory sequence. The community of participants was composed of qualitative informants, managers and experts aware of the issues of the gas and energy industry, and the data were gathered and analyzed until the availability of semi-structured interviews. The statistical population included people with knowledge and experience related to the field of gas and energy, and the data of 300 cases were analyzed using a questionnaire made by the researcher for 40 subjects. Quantitative data analysis was performed using SPSS and SmartPLS software and structural equation modeling method based on partial least squares. The qualitative findings showed that the gas shortage is a multidimensional and systematic phenomenon, and the factors affecting it are located in six main axes, including pressure demand and consumption pattern, quality policy and governance of energy, infrastructure capacity and satisfaction, consumption management, technology and efficiency, climatic and environmental pressures, and time complexity and feedback. Also, the intensity of the gas concentration as the main structure and the economic, industrial, social, environmental and security consequences as the final output model were identified. The results confirmed the appropriate quantitative, reliable and descriptive measurement model and indicated that each hypothesis is meaningful for the research. demand pressure and consumption pattern with a coefficient of 0.291, time complexity and feedback with a coefficient of 0.267 and climatic and environmental pressures with a coefficient of 0.160 had a positive and significant effect on the intensity of dissatisfaction. In contrast, infrastructure capacity and satisfaction with a coefficient of -0.256, quality of policy making and energy governance with a coefficient of -0.201, and consumption management, technology and efficiency with a coefficient of -0.147 showed a negative and significant effect on the intensity of dissatisfaction. Also, the intensity of sodium gas with a coefficient of 0.712 had a positive and strong effect on its consequences. Six predictors explained a total of 62.9% of the changes in the intensity of dissatisfaction, and the intensity of the dissatisfaction also explained 50.6% of the changes in its consequences. The values ​​of the indicator of the power of prediction for the severity of dissatisfaction and its consequences were obtained in the order of 0.408 and 0.316 respectively, and the fit of the whole model was evaluated as acceptable and relatively desirable. In general, the results showed that gas shortage is not a single-factor problem, and its sustainable reduction requires simultaneous intervention in demand management, development and modernization of infrastructure, governance reform, improvement of efficiency and technology, and management of climatic effects and time delays.