Developing a Comprehensive Interpretive-Structural Model for Circular Supply Chain Risks in the Context of Industry 4.0
Keywords:
Risk, Circular Supply Chain, Industry 4.0, Total Interpretive Structural ModelingAbstract
Managing the risks associated with smart technologies in Industry 4.0 within the circular supply chain is important for preventing organizational failure. This study aimed to identify the cause-and-effect relationships among circular supply chain risks in the context of Industry 4.0 in the petrochemical industry using the Total Interpretive Structural Modeling method. The qualitative findings, obtained through content analysis based on a systematic review of the theoretical literature and semi-structured interviews with 18 experts, including senior and middle managers of petrochemical companies, researchers, and university professors, showed that the risks included “organizational risk,” “employee risk,” “technological infrastructure risk,” “circular framework risk,” “financial and economic risk,” “policy and regulatory risk,” and “operations and supply risk.” The causal findings of Total Interpretive Structural Modeling in the quantitative phase indicated that “policy and regulatory risk” was the most influential factor and the main driver of other risks, affecting “organizational risk.” “Financial and economic risk” and “technological infrastructure risk” played mediating roles in the model and had a fundamental role in system complexity. “Circular framework risk,” “employee risk,” and “supply and operations risk” were respectively the most dependent risks and influenced system performance. The results indicate that the lack of governmental support is highly important and influential in creating legal and regulatory risks and disruptions. On the other hand, as supply and operations risk increases, the supply chain shifts from a closed-loop state back to a linear state.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Seyed Davoud Mirghaderi (Author); Mahmoud Modiri (Corresponding author); Nowrouz Nourollahzade, Gholamreza Hashemzadeh khorasegani (Author)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
